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		<doi>10.1111/gcb.16670</doi>
		<issn>1354-1013</issn>
		<citationkey>FerreiraCFENVBMANA:2023:PoAbBi</citationkey>
		<title>Potential aboveground biomass increase in Brazilian Atlantic Forest fragments with climate change</title>
		<year>2023</year>
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		<secondarytype>PRE PI</secondarytype>
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		<author>Ferreira, Igor José Malfetoni,</author>
		<author>Campanharo, Wesley Augusto,</author>
		<author>Fonseca, Marisa Gesteira,</author>
		<author>Escada, Maria Isabel Sobral,</author>
		<author>Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade,</author>
		<author>Villela, Dora M.,</author>
		<author>Brancalion, Pedro,</author>
		<author>Magnago, Luiz Fernando Silva,</author>
		<author>Anderson, Liana Oighenstein,</author>
		<author>Nagy, Laszlo,</author>
		<author>Aragão, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de,</author>
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		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Veraterra Mapeamento & Consultoria Ambienta</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense (UENF)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense (UENF)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Universidade de São Paulo (USP)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<electronicmailaddress>igor_malfetoni@hotmail.com</electronicmailaddress>
		<electronicmailaddress>wesley.campanharo@gmail.com</electronicmailaddress>
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		<electronicmailaddress>isabel.escada@inpe.br</electronicmailaddress>
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		<electronicmailaddress>luiz.aragao@inpe.br</electronicmailaddress>
		<journal>Global Change Biology</journal>
		<volume>29</volume>
		<number>11</number>
		<pages>3098-3113</pages>
		<secondarymark>A1_MEDICINA_I A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR A1_GEOGRAFIA A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A1_ENGENHARIAS_III A1_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I A1_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS A1_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I A1_BIODIVERSIDADE A2_PLANEJAMENTO_URBANO_E_REGIONAL_/_DEMOGRAFIA A2_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA B1_EDUCAÇÃO C_ENGENHARIAS_II</secondarymark>
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		<keywords>climate change, ecosystem service, fragmentation, human-modified landscape, neotropical carbon stocks modelling, remote sensing.</keywords>
		<abstract>Fragmented tropical forest landscapes preserve much of the remaining biodiversity and carbon stocks. Climate change is expected to intensify droughts and increase fire hazard and fire intensities, thereby causing habitat deterioration, and losses of biodiversity and carbon stock losses. Understanding the trajectories that these landscapes may follow under increased climate pressure is imperative for establishing strategies for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we used a quantitative predictive modelling approach to project the spatial distribution of the aboveground biomass density (AGB) by the end of the 21st century across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) domain. To develop the models, we used the maximum entropy method with projected climate data to 2100, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from the fifth Assessment Report. Our AGB models had a satisfactory performance (area under the curve&#8201;>&#8201;0.75 and p value&#8201;<&#8201;.05). The models projected a significant increase of 8.5% in the total carbon stock. Overall, the projections indicated that 76.9% of the AF domain would have suitable climatic conditions for increasing biomass by 2100 considering the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the absence of deforestation. Of the existing forest fragments, 34.7% are projected to increase their AGB, while 2.6% are projected to have their AGB reduced by 2100. The regions likely to lose most AGBup to 40% compared to the baselineare found between latitudes 13° and 20° south. Overall, although climate change effects on AGB vary latitudinally for the 20712100 period under the RCP 4.5 scenario, our model indicates that AGB stocks can potentially increase across a large fraction of the AF. The patterns found here are recommended to be taken into consideration during the planning of restoration efforts, as part of climate change mitigation strategies in the AF and elsewhere in Brazil.</abstract>
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		<language>en</language>
		<targetfile>Global Change Biology - 2023 - Ferreira - Potential aboveground biomass increase in Brazilian Atlantic Forest fragments.pdf.crdownload</targetfile>
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